Export deliveries of poultry and eggs from America in 2004.
In 2004 the export costs of American poultries, eggs and other products is amount to 2,523 billion dollars, that pass on the similar parameter in 2003 on 12,2 percent. There is the growing of export of poultry, eggs and other products of eggs. At the same time in comparison with 2003 it was fixed the reduction of export deliveries of ready-made products of poultries, sausages, alive poultries, pile and feathers. In 2004 the money measure of export deliveries of poultries came to 2,026 billion dollars (+16,9 %). In spite of decrease of export of ready–made products of poultries and sausages on 9,2 % this commodity category continues to remain the second volume of delivery. Export of eggs/ eggs products have grown on 20,2 % in 2004, but at the same time it was fixed heavy reduction of export of an alive poultries (-25,8 %) and pile/feathers (-55,4 %).
In 2004 the volume of export of chicken meat has made 2 415 605 tons, per 1,936 billion dollars. Hereby there were fixed the reduction of volumes of delivery on 4,6 % at simultaneous increasing of cost at 13,5 %. Export of broilers parts has decreased on 6,2 %, however the cost of these deliveries has grown on 14,1 %. In comparison with 2003 you can note the increase of the volume and costs of deliveries of the whole hen.
In December 2004 the export of hen has grown in comparison with December, 2003 and it has made 224 656 tons (+22 %) per 164,8 million dollars (+14,7 %). The export of parts of broilers and the whole hen has grown per quantity and price at the simultaneous reduction of volume and costs of deliveries of ready-made products of hen and sausages.
In December 2004 the largest export markets of the USA on which the parts of broilers were delivered were: Russia, Hong Kong, Mexico, Cuba and Lithuania. In comparison with December 2003 the volume of deliveries to Russia has grown and has made 68 307 tons (+92,1 %) per 45,95 million dollars (+85,2 %). At the period from January till December 2004 the volume of export of parts of broilers to Russian Federation has made 687 687 tons (+3,5 %) per 495,13 million dollars (+34,3 %).
The world market review of meat
The first review of the world market of meat prepared by Food and Agricultural Organization was published at the present year. In accordance to the report the market was instability in 2004. The epidemics of animals, the protection actions, new rules, restrictions of trade everything made negative affect to the condition of the meat branch.
The volume of manufacture has grown on 2 %, owing to closing of the borders, introductions of quarantine the volume of trade of meat production was reduced to 1%. For the first time the decreasing of the world sales volume of the meat branch took place since 80th years of the last century. It is necessary to consider the fluctuation of rates exchanges. As a result, the Food and Agricultural Organization marked the changes of the geography of trade of meat. There was a growth of export in the countries of America Latina. The epidemic of "the bird's flu" has burst out in Asia. Therefore the export of the fresh and frozen poultries was reduced at simultaneous growth of sales volume of ready-made and handled production on the poultries basis.
The forecast at 2005 as a whole is positive. The markets will be opened, deliveries will be increased, and it will be reflected on prices. At the same time as always the dynamic of the processes of the market will be depended on such factors, as death rate of the bird's flu, quarantine modes, general direction of trading and agrarian policy of some countries will still influence at the dynamics of the market processes. In particular, the problems of quotes of import to Russia, the rule of prevention and preventive maintenance of the cow furiousness in the USA, cattle breeding trading between USA and Canada, antimonopoly sanctions of the USA concerning breeders of Canada, everything, that is connected with renewal of beef trade between USA and Japan. The trade of a poultries will be defined to wide extend by the preliminary decision of WTO forthcoming soon on a customs mode of EU concerning import of the salted chickens. The matter of fact is that the duties have been increased in 2003 from 15, 4 % up till 75 %. In accordance to the opinion of FAO of world trade by meat at the present year the will be changed according to the decision of the listed problems.
MEAT INDUSTRY
The volume of the world production should be grown in view of price increase on finished goods and the low prices of forages which are on 20 % below, than at the beginning of 2004. FAO considers, that the growth will made 2, 8 %, and production will reached 264, 7 million tons. The growth will be marked everywhere, but you have attention to one detail: 80 % of the growth of production (the growth will be expressed 7, 2 million tons) will provide the developing countries, first of all the Asian which accounts for 40% of all world exports. In 90th years of the last century the developing countries accounts 43 % of world production of meat, that in 2005 this parameter will reach 58 %.
What is the situation of a specific kinds of production?
Beef. Here is the highest growth of parameters. It is expected, that 63,5 million tons will be received, that is above that parameter of a last year on 3 %. The livestock in the developed countries remains at record-breaking low level. Especially it is appreciated in the North America and Australia. It is possible to expect some energization of butchering because of a high prices. The production of a beef in EU will be reduced because of reforming the Uniform agricultural policy the payments to farmers will be cut down. However all aforesaid does not concern England because FAO estimate to growth the producing of a beef on 185 thousand tons according to the realization of the decisions of EU, which concerned the cattle breeding industry of British isles.
Poultry. Poultries will be received much more, than in the last year, but it is necessary to remember about the flash of "the bird's flu" in Asia. The growth will made 2,8%, and it will be received about 80 million tons. The level of a poultries consumption will be restored in Asia. At the last year the consumption has fallen on 27,2 million tons. At the same time, there are connected a difficult situation in accordance to a virus of "the bird's flu" N5N1 in 8th countries. It is appeared that the virus extends more quickly in more cool weather. Since 2004, 140 million goals of a poultries were died or destroyed. These are about 20-25% of a livestock of a poultries of Vietnam and Thailand. As a whole for this reason the production of poultries meat were reduced at 3% in Asia. As to the statistic of victims among the population since 2003 47 person has died from "the bird's flu".
Pork. It will be made no less than 103, 4 million tons that is on 2, 6% is more than one year ago. It is supposed, that in this branch the countries of Asia become the impulse force of growth. It is expected that a whole growth of production is going to be about of 3-4 % (China, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam). In the USA pig-breeding is going to rise, but in the Europe (EU) it is receiving less.
Due to the developing countries becomes also more sheep, because these countries in fact account three quarters of all world livestock.
It is expected, that in 2005 the consumption per head will reach 41 kg. It is on the whole. However there can take place the relapses of consumer’s fears concerning some kinds of meat are not excluded in Asia. You can see one of the fact in Japan where one person have died for the first time from "the cow furiousness". Probably, it cannot remain without consequences
WORLD TRADE
The world trade by meat should increase since the interdictions of import of the American beef or completely advanced acting poultries from the Asian countries would be gradually cancelled. FAO considers, that the sales volume of meat production will be increased on 4% and will be made about 20 million tons. As a whole the more favorable position will have the countries of Latin America because there weren’t any flashes of epidemics of animals. The repartition of the market in favor of Latin American is inevitable because Northern America cannot give guarantees concerning a spongy encephalopathy and Asia - rather "the bird's flu". It is expected, that a share of the countries of Latin America in the world market of meat will increase on some items. According to information: in 2004 in South America was about 29% of all world market of meat. Beef of this parameters is still above - 37% and poultries - 35%. Last year 24% of world export of meat was to Brazil. Apparently, this country will keep the positions of the leading exporter of the world. It will be the leader of export of a beef and it will struggle with the USA for the right to be considered as the largest supplier in the world market of meat.
How is going to look the separate categories of meat?
Beef. In spite of the certain pressure of the developed countries at the market and unwillingness of Japan to buy a beef in the USA, in FAO considers, that the world sales volume will increase on 5% and will make 6, 3 million tons. It is expected that the growth of demand in USA, EU, Mexico, to South Korea and etc. The USA are the largest and most fast-growing importer of a beef in the world. At the middle of the of the last century the world import has grown on 1, 3 million tons. Almost a half of gain has fallen to the USA. In 2004 and 2005 USA account a quarter of world import of a beef. USA take the second place in the world export of a beef though in 2005 their export should be hardly probable not the lowest all over the history of the USA.
The various variants are possible, assured in FAO. Without the USA competition the positions of Latin America and Australia and such exporters as India and Nicaragua will be amplified. The EU countries also hasn’t good situation. The European Union has a high prices for a beef, the rate of euro does not promote export, and Russia as a basis market of EU has entered the as on deliveries of a beef. All this facts can’t promote the strengthening of a position of EU as the exporter, but they can strengthen the tendencies of EU transformation into net-importer of a beef.
In 2005 the share of developing countries will increase in world export till up 48%. It is twice more, than in 2000. However, if the export was growing for last three years on 25% in 2005 it is increasing for 8%.
Poultry. The accession of the sales volume will be about 5%, and export will be increased till up 8, 2 million tons. In spite of the high world prices and internal demand the leading manufacturers such as USA and Brazil have aspire to expand the scales of production and delivery to the foreign markets. Untraditional exporters such as Chile, Malaysia, Philippines have intended to expand deliveries to the rich Asian countries, such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore These rich countries of Asia refuses to buy the fresh or cool poultries from Thailand and China which recently were their basic suppliers. The interdiction on import of fowl can be a cause of a reduction of export to this region till up 1 million ton. It is almost twice less than in 2002 when export was about 1, 8 million tons. In 2004 the import from Asian countries has fallen on 17%, but it is increasing a little and it is going to make about 3, 3 million tons. However it is less, than it was before the flash of "the bird's flu". Import from some Central-American countries is going to increase especially from Mexico.
Pork. During the restoration of demand of beef and fowl is expected it is expected the certain stagnation in world trade of pork. The parameters practically will be constant. In 2005 the volume of trade of pork will be about 4, 5 million tons. The trading markets of Asia practically won’t be changed. If in 2004 import was growing on 13% but it was expected the collapse of the production of port at the present year. It is possible to expect the moderate export from USA but in spite of the high prices and low import quotas of the Russian Federation the export of other players of the marker will be insignificant.
Mutton. The production of this kind of meat will increase till up 750 thousand tons. The demand in Northern America and in countries of Asia it will be satisfied due to the deliveries from Australia and New Zealand where is growing of a livestock. The import from the United States can be restrained of a rate of dollar and of restoration of livestock of own sheep.
